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ACUS11 KWNS 041605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041605
COZ000-WYZ000-041800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1524
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western/northern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041605Z - 041800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts will be possible through early
afternoon as storms quickly move northeast across western/northern
Colorado.

DISCUSSION...On the nose of relatively focused ascent from a compact
shortwave trough, a line of thunderstorms (moving northeast around
35-45 mph) has organized across western Colorado this morning. KGJT
(Grand Junction, CO) gusted to 49 kt at 1541 UTC with the passage of
this line. This threat may persist into the early afternoon hours,
considering the intersection of strong southwesterly flow aloft and
several layers of modestly steep lapse rates (around 7-7.5 C/km)
noted in the 12Z GJT sounding. Additionally, some surface heating
ahead of the line and organization of a trailing precipitation
shield may further support this damaging wind potential. While a
watch is not expected (due to limited coverage of the threat),
isolated damaging gusts may persist into early afternoon across
northern Colorado, and 5% wind probabilities will be added with the
1630Z outlook. This threat should diminish during the afternoon,
though, as convection outpaces any substantive surface-based
buoyancy.

..Picca/Guyer.. 10/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GJT...

LAT...LON 39530878 40050864 40880806 41050775 41050681 41000602
40370618 39250684 38870717 38390807 38720855 39530878



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