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ACUS11 KWNS 040446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040446
MIZ000-040645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Areas affected...Central Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040446Z - 040645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of severe wind potential is possible
across central Lower Michigan if storms maintain strength off Lake
Michigan.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is currently traversing the central
part of Lake Michigan, and shows signs of organization on the
mesoscale. Wind profiles remain very strong, and a few severe wind
gusts are possible despite relatively weak instability. These storms
are expected to be strongest as they reach the eastern shores of the
lake, and gradually weaken across central Lower Michigan where
instability decreases. Given the expected small area of severe
potential and short term threat, a watch is not currently
anticipated.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44098684 44408439 44248413 43888417 43578455 43508514
43498641 43588684 43668707 43818710 44098684



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