• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1522

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, October 04, 2018 03:35:49
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 040335
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040335
    AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1522
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

    Areas affected...Lower Colorado Valley...southern Nevada and
    northwest Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 040335Z - 040600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of producing hail are expected to
    persist for several more hours tonight.

    DISCUSSION...Sporadic thunderstorms over southern CA have likely
    produced marginally severe hail this evening, in advance of an upper
    trough that continues to move eastward. Despite the loss of daytime
    heating, cooling aloft will persist across the region maintaining
    instability. 00Z soundings show that shear profiles are quite
    favorable for cellular activity, and the cool midlevel temperatures
    will support hail production. Cells now approaching the CO river may
    affects parts of southern NV, with the greatest concentration
    expected over northwestern AZ tonight where upslope flow will aid
    storm development.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/04/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 33581552 34431582 35581548 36481522 37001471 37061382
    36671293 35661250 34871277 33981342 33341406 33101472
    33131517 33581552



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