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ACUS11 KWNS 040335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040335
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018
Areas affected...Lower Colorado Valley...southern Nevada and
northwest Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 040335Z - 040600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of producing hail are expected to
persist for several more hours tonight.
DISCUSSION...Sporadic thunderstorms over southern CA have likely
produced marginally severe hail this evening, in advance of an upper
trough that continues to move eastward. Despite the loss of daytime
heating, cooling aloft will persist across the region maintaining
instability. 00Z soundings show that shear profiles are quite
favorable for cellular activity, and the cool midlevel temperatures
will support hail production. Cells now approaching the CO river may
affects parts of southern NV, with the greatest concentration
expected over northwestern AZ tonight where upslope flow will aid
storm development.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/04/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 33581552 34431582 35581548 36481522 37001471 37061382
36671293 35661250 34871277 33981342 33341406 33101472
33131517 33581552
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