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ACUS11 KWNS 040454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040453
TXZ000-040700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central...south-central and southwest
TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...

Valid 040453Z - 040700Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73
continues.

SUMMARY...A continued threat for severe storms persists into the
early overnight across WW 73. Large hail and damaging winds will
remain the primary severe-weather threats.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed thunderstorm
coverage and intensities have increased as expected across
south-central TX, generally along and south of a line from KDRT to
KERV. The presence of a southeasterly low-level jet into this
portion of TX is sustaining moisture return beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates (7-8 C/km in the 2-6 km layer), resulting in moderate
instability (MUCAPE ). This combined with effective bulk shear up
to 50 kt favors additional organized storms, while the
aforementioned thermodynamics favor large hail occurrence. At
0435Z, the DRT NWS radar indicated severe winds (around 55 kt) at
less than 200 feet above the radar. These severe winds could reach
the surface posing a damaging wind potential in the short term
across far eastern Kinney County into part of western Uvalde County.

Meanwhile, farther west, convection and a storm had formed along the
southern extent of a dryline in southern Crockett County since
0350Z. Although additional storm development cannot be ruled out
along the dryline, the large cluster of storms in the central and
southeast part of WW 73 may limit greater moisture and overall
destabilization from spreading to the northwest.

..Peters.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29980176 30700078 31019997 31399943 31329864 30989791
30529835 30059768 29559817 29139828 28759817 28629883
28589904 28549928 28259937 28139991 28180020 29110082
29530128 29780170 29980176



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ACUS11 KWNS 142004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142004
GAZ000-ALZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Much of northern into west central Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142004Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing strong to severe storm development appears
likely across west central through northern Georgia, including the
Greater Atlanta Metropolitan area, by 5-6 PM EDT. Trends are being
monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Pre-frontal southerly low-level flow has veered and
weakened some across much of northern and western Georgia, but deep
layer shear remains strong to the east of a 90-100 kt southwesterly
500 mb jet streak. A lingering seasonably moist boundary layer
appears weak to moderately unstable with CAPE on the order of
500-1000+ J/kg, and deepening cumulus clouds are evident ahead of
the front, across eastern Alabama into northern Georgia.
Thunderstorms seem likely to initiate during the 21-23Z time frame,
at least a few of which may become severe. Damaging wind gusts
appear the primary potential severe hazard, with some risk for
severe hail. A tornado may not be out of the question, but this
threat appears relatively low.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON 34038500 34598467 34728366 34198355 32948445 32758476
33048533 34038500



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