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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1520

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, October 03, 2018 23:13:18
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 032313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032312
    MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1520
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

    Areas affected...much of central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 032312Z - 040145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this
    evening, and a few may become marginally severe with a hail or wind
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows TCU developing near a surface
    trough from southwest KS into northwest MO, ahead of the primary
    cold front which is rapidly approaching from the north. MLCAPE of up
    to 2000 J/kg has developed from south central KS into IA, and winds
    veer with height and may support a few cells capable of hail or
    locally damaging wind gusts.

    Storms are first expected to form within the pre-frontal trough
    where temperatures are hot, and then may increase in coverage
    further as the cold front interacts with the unstable air mass,
    especially from northeast KS into northern MO. Any severe threat
    will be maximized during the first few hours after development, with
    decreasing intensity during the late evening.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37139942 37050142 37140180 37380176 37610149 38000034
    38099994 38269941 38449872 38799818 39239775 39629645
    40349437 40389392 40219380 39739382 39359424 37969683
    37599774 37289880 37139942



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