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ACUS11 KWNS 032214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032213
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...northeast Iowa...southern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 032213Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to develop along the
cold front, with severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes possible.

DISCUSSION...A strong cold front is currently approaching the Twin
Cities as of 22Z, and extends southwestward into northwest IA.
Widespread clouds have kept temperatures cool from MSP eastward into
central WI, and this has created an effective warm front from
southeast MN into west-central WI. To the southwest of this area,
and ahead of the cold front, the boundary layer has become more
mixed, with warmer temperatures and wind gusts to over 30 kt from IA
into southern WI.

Recently, storms have formed just west of MSP, along the
accelerating cold front where lift is strong enough to break the
capping inversion. Although low-level winds will veer near the
front, shear profiles will remain favorable for supercells with
ample low-level SRH and lengthening hodographs aloft. The greatest
tornado potential may be with the activity developing over MN which
will move into the existing tornado watch 395. Additional
development is expected through evening along the front into IA and
southern WI. Supercells will be possible, but the strong linear
forcing mechanism may result in mixed storm modes, with damaging
wind and tornado potential.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43958760 43248826 42828898 42209051 41999161 42049254
42419325 42959361 43519354 43899319 44149289 44259185
44438967 44538801 44498758 44278751 43958760



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