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ACUS11 KWNS 040043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040043
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Northeast KS...northwest MO...and southern and
central IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72...

Valid 040043Z - 040145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat across northeast Kansas through
northwest Missouri to southern and central Iowa will diminish this
evening. WW 72 can be allowed to expire as scheduled at 01Z.

DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, mosaic radar imagery showed most of the storm
activity had developed into a line extending from near DSM southwest
to STJ, with broken convection along a wind shift extending
southwest into eastern KS. In addition to these storms, a few
storms were tracking north in the post-wind-shift environment
northeast of MHK. Forcing for ascent/height falls attendant to a
shortwave trough tracking toward IA and the lower Missouri Valley
should support additional thunderstorm development this evening into
the overnight.

Residual marginal instability, effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 mainly
across central into part of eastern IA, and strong effective bulk
shear suggests storm organization is possible yet in the short term.
The aforementioned low-level shear also suggests a brief tornado
threat cannot be ruled out along the leading part of the QLCS.
However, this threat and additional severe threats will continue to
diminish, given further boundary-layer stabilization with the loss
of daytime heating.

..Peters.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39079686 40009608 40299536 40509491 41859384 41869275
41829235 40639241 39469400 39009548 39079686



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ACUS11 KWNS 141900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141900
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern Tennessee and Northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141900Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have begun to initiate along a confluence zone in
eastern Tennessee. Further development southward into northwest
Georgia is possible. Strong wind fields will support organized
storms capable of all severe hazards. A tornado watch is possible
within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early morning convection, modest
boundary layer recovery has occurred across eastern Tennessee. An
area of agitated cumulus has developed along a confluence zone just
east of Crossville, TN. Surface observations from the last hour have
indicated that boundary layer moisture has mixed out to a degree.
Nonetheless, dewpoints in the upper-50s to low 60s have contributed
to MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. As storms are now beginning to
develop on the north end of the confluence band, the expectation is
for continued development southward, as supported by some CAMs.
Given the strong wind fields -- effective bulk shear of 60-75 kts
per objective mesoanalysis -- organized convection capable of all
hazards is expected. A tornado watch is possible within the next
hour.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON 35848516 36478486 36558442 36488370 36228335 35518339
35028385 34568436 34348489 34478531 34828549 35118548
35418531 35848516



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