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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1512

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, October 02, 2018 19:10:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 021910
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021910
    MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-022115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1512
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

    Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...Southeast New York...Southern
    New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021910Z - 022115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind damage threat and marginal tornado threat will be
    possible this afternoon from northern New Jersey northeastward into
    southern New England. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out
    across the region.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front located
    from southeast New York extending eastward across Connecticut.
    Convection is developing near the boundary in southeast New York
    along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent evident on
    water vapor imagery. Ahead of the convection, surface dewpoints in
    the New York Vicinity and in far southern New England are generally
    in the mid to upper 60s F which is contributing to the development
    of weak instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Boston
    and New York City have moderate to strong deep-layer shear with 0-3
    km storm relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This may be enough for
    a marginal tornado threat with cells that interact with the warm
    front. Wind damage will also be possible but the threat should
    remain isolated due to the weak instability.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41577202 41127296 40347445 40547504 40957514 41397476
    41947349 42567242 42177174 41577202



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