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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1511

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, October 02, 2018 18:55:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 021855
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021855
    OHZ000-022100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1511
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central Ohio and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021855Z - 022100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Initial development along a cold front has occurred in
    central Ohio. With destabilization occurring ahead of the front,
    storm coverage should increase over the next few hours. Isolated
    large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. A WW
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of the cold front in northwestern Ohio, visible
    satellite imagery depicts and area of heating that has heated the
    surface to the mid- to upper-70s. Initial storm development has
    occurred with a cluster of storms north of Columbus. MLCAPE values
    have risen to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates are
    steeper than areas to the east, generally near 7 C/km, overall
    deep-layer shear profiles are a touch weaker at only 30-35 kts. The
    primary threats will this activity will likely be isolated large
    hail and damaging wind gusts. KILN VAD profiles show only around 100
    m2/s2 SRH with surface flow much more veered than areas to the east.
    The overall tornado potential should remain low. A WW may be needed.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40458456 41038352 41588221 41318139 40268139 39768216
    39308281 39238325 39328396 39738443 40218472 40458456



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