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ACUS11 KWNS 021826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021826
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Areas affected...Western/central Pennsylvania...Eastern Ohio...far
northern West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021826Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initial convective development is occurring in eastern
Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Storm coverage is expected to increase by
3-4 EDT. Initial semi-discrete storm mode will be capable of all
severe hazards. A WW may be needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite shows relatively few breaks
within the cloud cover across western/central Pennsylvania and
eastern Ohio. Areas that have remained relatively clear have heated
to the mid- to upper-70s, contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg. Areas of
cumulus development along/near a confluence axis in eastern Ohio and
western Pennsylvania shows that convective inhibition has nearly
been eliminated. With the approach of an upstream mid-level wave,
storm coverage should continue to increase by 3-4 PM EDT. Strong
flow aloft is contributing to effective deep-layer shear of 30-40
kts. Initial storm development is expected to be semi-discrete,
posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Modest mid-level lapse rates should limit overall hail potential. At
low levels, per radar VAD profiles within the discussion area, while
hodograph curvature is modest, strong flow just off the surface has
contributed to 100-200 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH. Given the wind fields
and overall moist environment, the strongest discrete storms will be
capable of producing a tornado or two. A WW may be needed within the
next hour or two.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41008143 41418115 41718094 41898070 41938015 41877785
41757641 41167579 40747567 40247585 40027631 39997745
39787892 39528013 39628098 39938148 40598149 41008143



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