This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1525387432-23415-4609
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 032243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032242
TXZ000-040045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032242Z - 040045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms possible late this
afternoon and this evening along and head of the dryline in
southwest Texas.

DISCUSSION...Upslope flow has led to storm development in the higher
terrain of northern Mexico. Effective deep-layer shear of 50+ knots
will support sustained updrafts as these storms move off the higher
terrain towards Del Rio and areas to the east. These storms will
encounter a higher theta-e airmass as they move NE with temperatures
in the low to mid-90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moist axis will lead to strong
updrafts capable of large hail. In addition, a well mixed sub-cloud
layer will support some gusty winds. Additional storm development is
possible along the dryline, but this will be limited to areas
between Del Rio and Edwards county where confluence is maximized.
Limited storm coverage over a small area and uncertainties about
longevity will likely preclude the need for a watch.

..Bentley.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29070080 29290092 29540110 29900057 30249990 30479909
30439901 29999843 29349812 28639881 28010000 28270033
29070080



------------=_1525387432-23415-4609
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1525387432-23415-4609--

--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1555262791-1972-10285
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 141726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141725
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-INZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky...Southern Ohio...Western West
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 141725Z - 141930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Boundary layer destabilization is underway in eastern
Kentucky with agitated cumulus now visible on satellite. Storm
initiation is expected within the next 2-3 hours. Strong deep-layer
wind profiles will support storm organization and supercells capable
of all severe hazards. A tornado watch will be forthcoming in the
next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a mid-level shortwave now approaching western
Kentucky, low-level moisture return has begun to increase across the
discussion area. An area of enhanced cumulus, per visible satellite,
along a confluence axis has developed in eastern Kentucky. Given the
continued vertical development of these clouds and latest guidance
on timing from CAMs, storm initiation appears to be 2-3 hours away.
Region VAD profiles show between 50-70 kts of flow from 850-700 mb. Accordingly, low-level hodographs are relatively large -- which has
been sampled well by the JKL VAD -- along and south of a warm front
now nearing Wilmington, OH. As heating and moistening of the
boundary layer continues, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach around
1000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer flow will support effective bulk shear
of 60-75 kts. This parameter space suggest supercell storms capable
of all hazards. A tornado watch is likely in the next hour or two.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 37638545 39178482 39828413 39938298 39688220 39018195
37768239 37098262 36738372 36718485 36868545 37638545



------------=_1555262791-1972-10285
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1555262791-1972-10285--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)