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ACUS11 KWNS 032203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032203
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southern and eastern PA/central and
southern NJ/southeast NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032203Z - 040030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts should be generally sub-severe,
though one or two gusts could approach 50 kt, across parts of
southern and eastern Pennsylvania into western New Jersey to
southeast New York. Coverage of stronger storms is expected to
remain quite low, precluding the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A couple clusters of convection with embedded
thunderstorms have been observed across east-central PA and a second
area approaching central PA. Thus far, the strongest gust of 47 kt
occurred at KIPT at 1950Z. Forcing for ascent attendant to a
midlevel impulse tracking east across PA at this time and within the
entrance region of a 50-60-kt westerly 500-mb jet over northern New
England is likely aiding in the ongoing convective development that
has spread across the higher terrain in PA. Weak instability
especially with eastward extent toward the Atlantic coast should
continue to limit the coverage of thunderstorms. Strong surface
heating (temperatures up to 90 F) in the lower elevations from
southeast PA into NJ and southeast NY are resulting in steep 0-3 km
lapse rates up to 8.5 C/km and DCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg. Although
weaker instability will limit storm coverage, the aforementioned
favorable low-level thermodynamics suggest a stronger wind gust or
two could occur from southeast PA into western NJ to southeast NY
until the storms weaken this evening or move offshore.

..Peters/Edwards.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41247532 41327429 41287377 41167334 40767372 40547426
39997442 39847497 39907614 40167707 40487735 40707703
40737641 40797579 41247532



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ACUS11 KWNS 141548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141548
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-141745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Piedmont of northeast Georgia...Carolina into
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141548Z - 141745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development is underway
along and to the lee of the southern Appalachians. Trends are being
monitored. However, while one or more tornado watches may be
needed, current expectations are that this will be most probable in
the 1-3 PM EDT (perhaps later) time frame.

DISCUSSION...With the eastward progression of a significant
large-scale trough, now over the Mississippi Valley, and a deepening
surface cyclone migrating northeastward through the lower Ohio
Valley, the large-scale environment appears in the process of
becoming increasingly conducive to severe storm development to the
lee of the southern Appalachians. The boundary layer has become
seasonably moist with surface dew points generally in the upper 60s.
However, mid-level lapse rates are fairly modest, and areas of
mostly stratiform precipitation as well as mid/high cloudiness are
at least slowing insolation. Mixed-layer CAPE is still somewhat
modest (less than 1000 J/kg), though deep layer and low-level shear
are already fairly strong, and strengthening.

Most model output generally appears to suggest that the most
substantive severe weather potential may not commence until sometime
later this afternoon, gradually spreading northeastward across the
piedmont, from northeast Georgia through North Carolina. This is
expected to accompany the onset of stronger surface pressure falls
and peak boundary layer destabilization, when probabilities for
supercells with the risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are
expected to maximize.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34408338 35918137 36538064 36307974 35637949 33508227
33068288 34408338



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