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ACUS11 KWNS 031937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031936
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern KS...far southeastern
NE...far southwestern IA...and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 031936Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe thunderstorms should continue
to increase this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado or two all appear possible. Watch issuance is being
considered.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of overnight/early morning convection, the
low-level airmass has at least partially recovered across
northeastern KS into northwestern MO and vicinity. Visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear conditions across this region, and
surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s
along/south of a warm front extending northeastward into southern IA
from a surface low centered over northeastward KS. Shallow
convection along a surface cold front extending southward from the
low across central KS is beginning to show signs of vertical
development, and thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this
afternoon as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper
low across the central High Plains overspreads this region. With
sufficient low-level moisture present, MLCAPE of generally 500-1500
J/kg will support thunderstorm maintenance through the evening
hours. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kt will be favorable for
supercell structures, and large hail/damaging winds will both be
possible. There will also be some threat for tornadoes given
low-level winds strengthening and modestly veering with height.
Effective SRH values around 150-200 m2/s2 should be maximized near
the surface warm front.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38349534 38069609 38019669 38209720 38809739 40079685
40829605 41109513 41199437 41109371 40859335 40389330
39929348 39609373 38889464 38349534



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ACUS11 KWNS 141228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141228
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...southwestern Georgia and portions of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141228Z - 141500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A broken band of storms continues to forward-propagate
toward the discussion area and will pose a threat for tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts. A WW issuance is being considered.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of convection located from just east of
MGM to near PNS continues to migrate eastward. A break in deep
convection has developed across the Florida Panhandle, although this
break may be temporary. Storms continue in a moist, strongly
sheared low-level environment, with upper 60s F dewpoints supporting
500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE, although slightly warmer temperatures aloft
may be resulting in slightly lower instability with eastward extent.
Subtle mid-level inhibition (related to the warmer temperatures
aloft) may temper convective development somewhat, although the more
likely scenario is for storms to continue eastward and begin impact
most of the area perhaps as early as 1400-1500Z. These storms will
pose a threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A tornado
watch may be needed sometime after 14Z.

..Cook.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31738526 31878506 31928445 31918392 31878358 31608330
30808328 30378320 30038324 29768365 29828414 29708482
29688520 30048541 30878538 31618531 31738526



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