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ACUS11 KWNS 031736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031735
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of north/central/east TX...southeastern
OK...western AR...and far southern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...

Valid 031735Z - 031900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
continues.

SUMMARY...The overall severe threat across WW 70 appears to be
decreasing. The need for a downstream watch remains unclear, but
does not appear likely in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends across central/north TX have shown
a general decrease in convective intensity with a loosely organized
line of thunderstorms. Better large-scale forcing for ascent
associated with an upper trough/low over the central High Plains
will remain displaced to the north of the lower MS Valley/Ozarks
regions today. The orientation of the squall line is also becoming
increasingly parallel to the mean mid-level southwesterly flow, with
a corresponding decrease in forward speed noted over the past
several hours. Still, modest diurnal heating beneath a
mid/upper-level cloud deck ahead of the ongoing line and plentiful
low-level moisture should result in a gradual increase in
instability this afternoon. A veering/strengthening wind profile
with resultant effective bulk shear values around 40-50 kt would
also support support some updraft organization. Regardless, the
overall severe threat appears relatively marginal given limited
low-level convergence and weak instability. The prospect for a
downstream watch appears unlikely in the short term, although
convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon.

..Gleason.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 31409816 32089761 32739639 34299546 35059499 36509400
36659332 36609263 36339238 34179294 33089405 31259649
30899718 30969778 31409816



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ACUS11 KWNS 141037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141036
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-141130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...southern Alabama and portions of the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

Valid 141036Z - 141130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues WW 58.

DISCUSSION...A linear complex continues to migrate
east-northeastward across western portions of WW 58. Areas of
rotation have been observed within individual cells within the band,
which isn't surprising given very strong low-level shear indicated
in mesoanalyses and VAD wind profiler data from WSR-88D MXX.
Instability values also remain around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE owing to
upper 60s F dewpoints just ahead of the storms. With a motion of
230/45, these storms should eventually reach eastern portions of the
WW around 12-13Z. With a similar environment in place across those
areas (with respect to shear/instability), it seems plausible that
at least an isolated severe threat will persist as storms eventually
approach southwest Georgia and vicinity after about 13Z. The need
for a WW will be re-evaluated at that time.

..Cook.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35748669 35858613 35858557 35488493 34828469 33848464
33218476 32718514 32468573 32358641 32488687 32848711
33388717 34178708 34998694 35448693 35748669



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