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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1505

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 27, 2018 18:21:19
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 271821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271820
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-272045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1505
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018

    Areas affected...Central Carolinas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 271820Z - 272045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop within a warm, moist
    airmass across the Carolinas. Storms should continue through the
    afternoon and strong wind gusts are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convective temperatures are being breached across the
    central Carolinas and storm coverage should increase over the next
    few hours as surface temperatures increase within the moist airmass.
    Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) and relatively weak shear
    (20-30 knots effective bulk shear) characterize the storm
    environment, which should yield multicellular, mostly disorganized
    convection. A few storms could exhibit weak rotation and become
    strong/severe if the updrafts can become established. Strong wind
    gusts are possible as the updrafts collapse or in areas with
    stronger storms and better boundary-layer mixing. The best overlap
    of shear/instability will be over central North Carolina and
    north-central South Carolina. Overall, the severe threat will remain
    marginal and isolated likely precluding a watch issuance this
    afternoon.

    ..Nauslar/Jewell.. 09/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

    LAT...LON 32958124 33018191 33208217 33388240 33858219 34428178
    34948139 35308101 35868019 36037981 36177934 36197899
    36077836 35907802 35517799 35237823 34887866 34627900
    34097969 33668020 33288066 33058105 32958124



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