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ACUS11 KWNS 261940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261940
PAZ000-NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-262215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261940Z - 262215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop and should continue
through the afternoon/evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Strong winds gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...A warm, moist environment is in place across much of
the Mid-Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front that stretches south-southwest from western New York through western
Pennsylvania/West Virginia. A smaller vorticity maximum is helping
to provide ascent over the the region with thunderstorms now
developing along the eastern edge of the Appalachians in Virginia
and North Carolina. With less cloud cover over most of the
discussion area compared to farther north/west, temperatures have
warmed into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
There is enough instability to support thunderstorm development
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg), and shear (effective bulk shear of 35-45
knots) is better across the northern half of the discussion area
(southern PA, northern MD/VA), which could produce a few rotating
storms within a broken line of storms this afternoon/evening. A
watch is unlikely given the overall marginal storm environment and
isolated severe risk, but southern PA/vicinity could be included in
a watch depending on storm evolution.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 09/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37578034 38157999 38797959 39817880 40417829 40437724
40407603 40397522 40267493 39267558 38687612 38117665
37667706 37057775 36747833 36597876 36617957 36728010
37078050 37578034



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