1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1503

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, September 26, 2018 18:49:14
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1537987770-1955-3204
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 261849
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261848
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-262115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1503
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0148 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

    Areas affected...Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 261848Z - 262115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms should continue to develop and likely strengthen
    through the afternoon across central New York and northeast
    Pennsylvania. Strong wind gusts are likely and a brief tornado or
    two cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...A shortwave upper-level trough is moving over the Great
    Lakes and Ontario providing forcing for ascent across the
    Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A surface cold front stretches
    south-southwest across western New York through western
    Pennsylvania. The leading edge of the convection is ahead of the
    surface cold front and storms have struggled to develop within a
    marginally unstable environment (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg). The ALB
    18z sounding confirms a rather weakly buoyant environment, but the
    effective SRH is 325 m2/s2 and shear vector is oriented about 45
    degrees across the cold front. Additionally, with the strong forcing
    and moderate-strong shear (effective bulk shear 40-60 knots) a few
    rotating storms are possible within QLCS development this afternoon.
    Persistent cloud cover may limit destabilization lending some
    uncertainty to the storm environment evolution. A watch issuance is
    possible with the forcing/shear present over the area even with the
    limited instability.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 09/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40537801 40547874 41487763 41917711 42297665 42647625
    42847586 42847541 42817492 42777444 42737412 42687331
    41877384 41387420 40857468 40417517 40467640 40497729
    40537801



    ------------=_1537987770-1955-3204
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1537987770-1955-3204--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)