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ACUS11 KWNS 261843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261843
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Wed Sep 26 2018

Areas affected...Northeast NY...VT...NH...Western ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261843Z - 262045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing storm intensity is anticipated and
the severe threat is expected to be high enough to merit a watch.
Primary severe threat is damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from
central Quebec south-southwestward through central Lake Ontario,
western NY, and western PA. A pre-frontal trough also exists about
60-70 miles ahead of cold front. These features will continue
progressing eastward, encountering the moderately warm and unstable
air mass downstream. Current surface observations reveal
temperatures in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low
70s. Despite this favorable low-level moisture, lapse rates are weak
and the generally warm and moist profiles will temper overall
instability. This lack of instability was sampled well by the 18Z
ALB sounding. In contrast, strong wind fields are contributing to
relatively high storm-relative helicity and bulk shear.

Strong forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front will
help overcome the modest instability and the expectation is for
gradually increasing storm intensity over the next few hours.
Kinematic environment is favorable for damaging wind gusts from
momentum transfer as well as isolated mesovortices within any
surging line segments. Severe coverage is expected to be high enough
to merit a watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 44717457 45087394 45087258 45347024 44107029 43257151
42787378 43047531 44717457



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