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ACUS11 KWNS 031403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031402
ARZ000-OKZ000-031530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 AM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Northwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031402Z - 031530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal severe threat may increase across portions of
eastern OK into northwest AR over the next few hours. Gusty winds
and perhaps marginally severe hail can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized squall line has formed over the southern
Plains and is currently progressing east of the I-35 corridor over
OK. Several bow-type structures have evolved along this linear MCS
and gusty winds may accompany these surging segments. Additionally,
surface boundary draped across northwest AR into northeast OK may
provide a focus for organized convection over the next few hours.
While organized squall line will spread across this region, at this
time it appears a new watch is not warranted due to the marginality
of this situation.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35309652 35949534 36109427 35789372 35039398 34339600
35309652



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ACUS11 KWNS 140716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140715
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-140815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...southern Alabama...southeastern Mississippi...and
portions of the Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

Valid 140715Z - 140815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across WW 56, and should
reach eastern portions of the WW around 08Z-09Z. In that timeframe,
conditions will be reevaluated for another potential WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...An ongoing, broken band of strong to severe convection
persists along a surface trough from near Hale County, AL
south-southwestward to near PQL on the MS Gulf Coast. The severe
threat with this activity will primarily be damaging wind gusts,
although bows/LEWPs and more discrete activity will be capable of
tornadoes given continued strong low- and deep-shear.

06Z area upper air soundings from LIX, FFC, TLH, and BMX indicate
subtle mid-level inversions - most pronounced in the 500-700 hPa
layer in TLH's soundings. With synoptic-scale forcing for ascent
displaced well to the west (and tied to the closed upper low over
eastern Oklahoma), it appears that any remaining convection will
most likely remain tied to convergence along the surface trough and
broad low-level confluence within the weakly to moderately unstable
warm sector. These processes will likely continue as the band
continues to shift east and will probably exist east of WW 56, with
damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two remaining possible. Before
convection reaches the eastern extent of WW 56, a downstream WW will
need to be considered and coordinated with affected WFOs.

..Cook.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 32158827 32388796 32298700 32158623 31798587 31358585
30748608 30298665 30158767 29998839 29798888 29818923
30318910 30888876 31508859 32158827



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