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ACUS11 KWNS 252221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252221
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Areas affected...Lower Michigan...northwest Ohio...Indiana...east
central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 252221Z - 260015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will spread into, and continue to
develop across, much of the region into the 8-11 PM EDT time frame,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind gusts. It is not
yet clear that this will require an additional severe weather watch,
but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to initiate in the warm
sector, across parts of lower Michigan southwestward across Indiana
into east central Illinois. This is ahead of the forced line of
storms now spreading into/through the Interstate 55 corridor of
northeast and central Illinois.

The northwestern periphery of richer boundary layer moisture return, characterized by dew points around 70, currently extends along the
Interstate 70 corridor of central Illinois into Indiana, and
northward, roughly near and east of the Interstate 69 corridor
across central Indiana into northwestern Ohio/southeastern lower
Michigan. This moisture, coupled with daytime heating, appears to
be contributing to CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. This is in
the presence of generally strong deep layer shear beneath 40-50
southwesterly mid-level flow.

Pre-frontal low-level wind fields are somewhat weak and veered
resulting in generally modest low-level hodographs across much of
the region. This may be at least one mitigating factor to a more
substantive severe weather risk into the 01-03Z time frame.
However, in the lingering moderate boundary layer instability, the
environment may remain conducive to convection capable of at least
producing localized potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps some
hail into/through the evening hours.

..Kerr/Hart.. 09/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 43808454 43448303 42368281 40828392 39508518 38638671
38668908 39448927 40418837 41418666 43198600 43808454



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