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ACUS11 KWNS 252138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252138
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
Connecticut

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
150 m2/s2.

The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
severe threat appears quite low.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 39757543 40047514 40407469 40827412 41157379 41537296
41497219 41167222 40897233 40337378 39787444 39367465
39757543



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