This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1537898866-1955-2588
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 251807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251807
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-252000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern IL...Northeast
MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251807Z - 252000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing storm strength and organization may
result in a high enough severe threat to merit a watch. Damaging
wind gusts are the primary threat, although a tornado or two cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to steadily progress eastward
across IA with a developing convective line along its leading edge.
This convective line has shown generally steady-state intensity over
the past hour or so but the downstream thermodynamic environment
appears a bit more favorable for intensification as warmer
temperatures promote stronger instability, particularly across
eastern IA. Farther east (i.e. northern IL and southern WI),
temperatures and dewpoints are a bit lower and the thermodynamic
environment does not currently appear particularly favorable. Even
so, continued heating plus mid-level cooling associated with the
approaching shortwave trough should result in enough instability for
storm persistence/maintenance.

Linear character of the ongoing storms suggests the primary severe
threat will be damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible with the strongest portion of the line. Warm mid-level
temperatures and the resulting lack of steeper lapse rates should
keep hail sizes predominately below severe thresholds. Recent trends
suggest severe coverage may high enough to merit a watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 41839241 42549179 42889137 43349053 43288929 42558861
41308951 40409041 40129124 40039280 40179363 40489369
41839241



------------=_1537898866-1955-2588
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1537898866-1955-2588--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)