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ACUS11 KWNS 251428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251427
IAZ000-251630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0927 AM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southern IA.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251427Z - 251630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
gradually increase over the next few hours. A few damaging wind
gusts and/or instances of severe hail are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a fast-moving
linear segment progressing into far west-central IA. This line
segment appears to be associated with the leading edge of the better
forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough moving through
the central Plains. Cold front progressing through the region is
moving a bit slower than this line segment, which now appears to be
co-located with the frontal zone. The downstream airmass is
currently characterized by widespread cloudiness and meager
instability. Even so, continued heating amidst the moderately moist
airmass should help destabilization over the next few hours.
Resultant moderately unstable airmass coupled with strong forcing
for ascent and enhanced low- to mid-level flow should allow for
increased thunderstorm coverage and intensity. A few of these storms
could become severe, with the primary threat of damaging wind gusts.
Some hail is also possible. Severe coverage is expected to be too
low during the next few hours to merit a watch, but trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41849536 42109489 42339388 42519241 41389246 40879339
40649547 41339583 41849536



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