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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1496

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, September 24, 2018 20:55:36
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 242055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242054
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-242300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1496
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0354 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Central Tennessee and Northern Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 242054Z - 242300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few stronger/organized storms could develop over middle
    Tennessee and northern Alabama through this evening. Overall, the
    severe threat will remain isolated if it materializes.

    DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough is moving over the Southeast and
    Ohio River Valley helping to spread ascent over the region. Within
    the warm sector including across Mississippi, Alabama, and most of
    Tennessee, a moist/unstable airmass is present and supportive of
    developing convection. MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg over middle
    Tennessee/northern Alabama with effective SRH of 75-150 and bulk
    shear of 25-30 knots per mesoanalysis/RAP soundings indicate the
    potential for a few weakly rotating storms. BNA radar has depicted a
    few storms with broad/weak rotation in the last hour across portions
    of middle Tennessee. A few stronger/organized storms are possible,
    but the overall severe threat remains marginal at best, thus a watch
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 09/24/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 35388699 35888682 36298650 36598615 36718558 36688530
    36548514 36288515 35918529 35508544 35128564 34858592
    34658612 34558634 34518659 34558689 34638716 34748719
    35208705 35388699



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