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ACUS11 KWNS 030907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030906
OKZ000-TXZ000-031100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...North Texas into southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 030906Z - 031100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning, and a few may
be severe with damaging winds, hail, or perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Despite the effects of previous convection and
outflows, several clusters of storms continue to reform over the
region due to a very moist and unstable air mass and strong
low-level jet providing rapid recovery. In addition, surface obs
indicate generally falling pressures ahead of the dryline where a
line of storms has materialized over northwest TX. Meanwhile, an
isolated supercell has increased in intensity across north TX. Shear
profiles are favorable for organized convection, as depicted on area
VAD wind profiles, and an elevated feed of higher theta-e air will
continue to support storm regeneration through morning.

..Jewell.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32920088 33580042 34060015 34589993 34909892 35189804
35319769 35349719 35239650 34619606 33999604 33399633
33029703 32899845 32800010 32820047 32920088



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ACUS11 KWNS 140401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140401
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-140600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi...Western and Central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...56...

Valid 140401Z - 140600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55, 56 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue into the early
overnight period as a line moves eastward into western Alabama. A
tornado threat, wind damage and hail can be expected with the line.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed linear
MCS across eastern Mississippi extending southward into southern
Mississippi and far southeastern Louisiana. Surface analysis ahead
of the line into western Alabama shows surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s F. RAP analysis is estimating that MLCAPE values are in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to a favorable
thermodynamic environment, the RAP shows a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet
oriented parallel to the convective line which has helped the line
to become more organized over the last couple of hours. The
low-level jet is creating strong low-level shear profiles which will
support a tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in the line.
Both the northeastern Mississippi and Mobile, AL WSR-88D-VWPs have a
looped hodograph with 0-3 km storm relative helicity in access of
500 m2/s2 which suggests a few strong tornadoes will be possible.
Wind damage will be likely with the stronger portions of the line as
well.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 34348876 33288868 32458878 31638913 30968950 30518947
30398860 30808757 32398692 33458688 34298723 34528790
34348876



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