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ACUS11 KWNS 030657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030657
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CDT Thu May 03 2018

Areas affected...Northern Illinois into northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67...

Valid 030657Z - 030830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong storms with damaging wind threat remain
possible across southern areas of the watch.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms across northwest IL will progress
across the watch from west to east, driven by surging outflow and
supported by weak instability. Mean winds speeds just above the
surface of 30-40 kt may support strong wind gusts with this activity
across north central IL into west central IN. Northern portions of
the watch including northern IL into northwest IN are currently
post-outflow from recent storms, suggesting even less instability
will be present to support severe weather there.

Farther south into central IL, addition weak storms are forming
ahead of the main line, indicative of warm/moist advection from the
southwest. These should not be severe, but suggest a better air mass
preceding the main line of storms which may contain a few strong
wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41779039 42138689 40348687 40029038 41779039



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ACUS11 KWNS 140131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140131
MSZ000-LAZ000-140330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0330
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...

Valid 140131Z - 140330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat associated with a convective line in the
far eastern part of WW 54 will likely move eastward out of the
watch. However, there could be a lingering severe threat in the
southern part of the watch as cells move eastward out of eastern
Louisiana into south-central Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed line of thunderstorms extending from central Mississippi southward into
southwestern Mississippi. This line is moving eastward at about 40
Kt. This means the line will exit the eastward edge of the watch
over the next hour or so.

Further southwest, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000-2500 J/kg
range. In addition, strong deep-layer shear profiles are evident on
regional WSR-88D VWPs. This along 850 mb flow of 50 to 60 kt could
be enough for an isolated severe threat across south-central
Mississippi and far eastern Louisiana. Wind damage would be the
primary threat. For this reason, WW 54 may need to be extended in
time to account for the lingering severe threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 32859015 32499033 31809124 31619161 31079194 30689197
30429177 30489130 30519079 30779030 31528971 31948933
32388923 33198916 33738933 33828952 33588990 32859015



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