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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1493

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, September 21, 2018 22:09:22
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 212209
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212208
    OHZ000-KYZ000-212345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1493
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0508 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

    Areas affected...central and eastern Kentucky through extreme
    southern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 212208Z - 212345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms developing through central and eastern Kentucky
    this evening may produce a few instances of locally strong, but
    mostly sub-severe wind gusts. Overall threat is not expected to
    become sufficient for a severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cold front extends from central OH
    through northwest and western KY. A moist boundary layer with near
    70F dewpoints resides east of this feature, but weak mid-level lapse
    rates with warm temperatures aloft are limiting MLCAPE to near or
    below 1500 J/kg. Storms are forming within a low-level confluence
    zone in pre-frontal warm sector with additional storms developing
    immediately upstream along the cold front. The stronger winds aloft accompanying a progressive upper trough reside well north of this
    region with weak to modest (20-30 kt) southwest winds in the 850-500
    mb layer and 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This environment will
    promote mostly multicell storm modes, and a few storms could pose a
    risk for locally strong wind gusts. Overall threat should remain
    limited by marginal thermodynamic and kinematic profiles.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 09/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37358653 38258528 38728456 39158371 38828297 37918323
    36838460 36708647 37358653



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