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ACUS11 KWNS 212027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212027
NYZ000-212130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Areas affected...Western/Northern NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 212027Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued within the
hour for portions of western/northern NY.

DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale height falls are spreading
across ON into western QC ahead of a strong short-wave trough. In
response, convection is deepening along a pre-frontal boundary that
is currently surging toward the NY/ON border. Latest radar data
suggests supercells are embedded along this corridor with one of the
stronger cells roughly 90mi west-northwest of MSS. While this storm
will likely remain north of the international border, other
supercells should approach the northern shore of Lake Ontario before
spreading into upstate NY. With time, storm mergers and low-level
convergence should encourage linear evolution, especially along the
US side of the border. Damaging winds are the primary threat and a
ww will likely be issued within the hour.

..Darrow/Thompson.. 09/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 44917379 43197573 42127797 43147905 45357571 44917379



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