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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1491

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, September 21, 2018 19:37:49
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 211937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211937
    PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-212100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1491
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

    Areas affected...OH to Western NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 211937Z - 212100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 21z
    from portions of OH into western NY. Damaging winds are the primary
    threat with storms into the early evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep
    low-level lapse rates from central OH into western NY. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s along this corridor and as
    a result latest diagnostic data depicts surface-3km lapse rates on
    the order of 8 C/km. While meager large-scale forcing will be noted
    south of Lake Erie, it appears ongoing convection will gradually
    mature along a pre-frontal boundary as it shifts east across OH into
    western NY/PA. Satellite imagery also suggests convection may
    strengthen along a lake induced low-level confluence zone oriented
    across western NY. Strengthening shear profiles will encourage
    longer-lived line segments and damaging winds are the primary threat
    as this activity matures over into the early evening hours.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 09/21/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 40248343 42148094 42537952 41517930 39648210 40248343



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