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ACUS11 KWNS 030410
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030409
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-030545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Eastern OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 66...

Valid 030409Z - 030545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 66 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will continue
across eastern OK as the convective line surges northeastward.

DISCUSSION...Organized MCS continues to progress
eastward/northeastward across eastern OK. Numerous strong to severe
gusts have been reported with the northern portion of the line from
SWO (51 kts) to OKM (38 kt) and RVS (48 kt). Given the orthogonal
orientation of the line to the mean flow, expectation is for
damaging wind gusts to continue as it progresses northeastward.
Embedded mesovortices are also possible along the leading edge of
any localized pockets of stronger outflow. Tornadoes are also
possible near the book-end vortex at the far northern end of the
MCS.

Farther south (south-central/southeast OK), southern portion of the
line has lagged behind the more progressive northern portion until
recently with more forward-propagation noted over the last 15 mins.
This increased forward motion was coincident with the line becoming
more favorably oriented within the mean flow. Like areas farther
north, damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes will remain
possible as the line continues quickly northeastward.

Need for a downstream watch was addressed in MCD 327.

..Mosier.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34479721 35289672 36679639 37049605 37129548 36989437
36649428 34389490 33979573 33919742 34479721



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ACUS11 KWNS 140126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140125
ALZ000-MSZ000-140300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 140125Z - 140300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Line embedded supercells currently in south central
Mississippi are expected to move east with a threat of damaging
winds and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...In the last hour, storms on the southern periphery of
the confluence band in central Mississippi have started to
strengthen. The strongest of these storms is currently entering
Walthall county. The 00Z LIX sounding shows moderate instability
with effective shear around 60 knots and 0-1 km SRH in excess of 450
m2/s2. This environment will support all severe hazards including
the potential for tornadoes. Widespread convective development in
this confluence band will likely lead to storm interference similar
to the storms farther north, but there is the potential that storms
could remain more discrete in this area which would support the
tornado threat despite a slightly weaker wind field compared to
areas farther north.

If several sustained storms can materialize across southern
Mississippi, an additional tornado watch may need to be issued in
far southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31618948 32028939 32188861 32178813 31518773 30918817
30938895 30978932 31038964 31288950 31618948



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