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ACUS11 KWNS 211715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211714
MIZ000-211845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211714Z - 211845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible for the next
couple of hours across southern Lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing at 17Z across
southern Lower MI along a pre-frontal trough. Despite weak midlevel
lapse rates across the region, some breaks in the clouds ahead of
the developing convection will allow for MLCAPE to increase into the
500-1000 J/kg range in areas that warm into the lower 80s F.
Steepening low-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer southwesterly
flow may allow for some locally damaging wind threat with the
strongest convection until around 19Z, when the main convective band
will have largely moved into ON.

..Dean/Thompson.. 09/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41878555 42908413 43898300 43968283 43628255 43098248
42318283 41858327 41818416 41788490 41878555



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