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ACUS11 KWNS 030328
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030327
TXZ000-030500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau and Permian
Basin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64...

Valid 030327Z - 030500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail are
possible across the watch area for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...New development has been noted over the past 30 mins
across western portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64, likely a
result of strengthening low-level moisture advection combined with
subtle forcing for ascent from a low-amplitude perturbation within
the strong southwesterly flow aloft. These storms are most likely
rooted near 850 mb. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates present
over the region and strong vertical shear (i.e. effective shear
values over 60 kt per latest mesoanalysis), potential exists for
strong mid-level mesocyclones capable of large to very large hail.
Instability weakens with northern extent and cells should weaken as
they progress northeastward.

..Mosier.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33130131 33460047 33509912 33439836 32999841 31299933
31029949 29800010 29550074 29590159 29870220 30240250
31640198 33130131



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ACUS11 KWNS 132313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132313
MSZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0328
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Yazoo...Holmes...Attala...Leake...and Madison
counties in central Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

Valid 132313Z - 140015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong supercells have developed in west central
Mississippi. These supercells are expected to continue through the
evening with a continued threat of large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed on or very near the
warm front between Vicksburg and Jackson, MS. A 22Z proximity
sounding from JAN shows these storms are in an environment with
0-6km shear in excess of 80 knots with mid-level lapse rates between
7.5 and 8 C/km. In addition, RAP mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE in
this area is around 1500 J/kg. In addition, using current storm
speed and motion with the partial 22Z JAN sounding, these storms are
in an environment with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 450 m2/s2. Given this
extremely favorable environment, these storms are expected to
persist into central Mississippi through the evening with the threat
for large hail and tornadoes. Storm interference has disrupted the
storms low-level mesocyclone organization and seems to have limited
the longevity of low-level tornadic circulations up to this point.
While the environment will continue to favor significant tornado
potential, messy convective mode and storm interference is expected
to continue.

..Bentley.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 32649038 32459028 32519001 32898927 33248936 33138991
32869042 32649038



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