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ACUS11 KWNS 210629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210629
MIZ000-210830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Areas affected...Coastal areas of northwest Lower MI and southeast
Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 210629Z - 210830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible during the overnight (between 3-4:30 AM EDT), as a line of
showers and thunderstorms moves across the coastal areas of
northwest Lower Michigan to southeast Upper Michigan. Limited
duration and coverage of this threat precludes the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a line of showers
and embedded thunderstorms extending from eastern Upper MI to
northwest Lake Michigan and into extreme northeast WI, with a
movement to the east-northeast at 40-45 kt. Despite time of day,
surface temperatures and dew points, east of this convective line,
including across the discussion area, have been rising. This is
likely a result of a poleward advection of theta-e, given warmer
lake temperatures on Lake Michigan at this time of year. Objective
analyses have indicated some steepening of surface-3 km lapse rates
and weakening of surface-based inhibition. This suggests that any
stronger downdrafts accompanying the line of convection and further
enhanced by a very strong southwesterly low-level jet per VADs at
MKE/GRB/APX could penetrate the destabilizing boundary layer to
produce a damaging wind gust.

..Peters/Edwards.. 09/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...

LAT...LON 45418491 44788537 44658579 44548605 44168626 44178649
44728633 45658596 46068559 46268544 46198476 45978444
45768448 45418491



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