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ACUS11 KWNS 030320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030320
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-030515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018
Areas affected...Portions of northwestern and extreme north-central AR...central and eastern MO...and extreme western IL.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 030320Z - 030515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm complexes initially in tornado watches
65-66 over western MO and eastern OK should move into the discussion
area over the next several hours, offering the potential mainly for
damaging winds, though a tornado or two and isolated/marginal hail
cannot be ruled out. The need for a watch is becoming increasingly
apparent across much of this area.
DISCUSSION...Two primary severe convective complexes, each with a
history of damaging gusts and a few QLCS-type tornadoes, are
apparent over eastern OK and western MO. The environment ahead of
these MCSs -- which may become linked along their aggregate outflow
front -- will remain favorable through much of tonight. Boundary-
layer warm and moisture advection associated with a 40-50-kt
southwesterly LLJ is expected from a source region characterized by
upper 60s to near 70 F surface dew points and 13-15 g/kg mean mixing
ratios (per 00Z soundings upstream). Modified RAOBs and model
soundings suggest stabilization of the boundary layer will be slow,
maintaining nearly surface-based effective-inflow parcels and 1000-
2000 J/kg MLCAPE into late tonight, with only slowly increasing,
mostly small MLCINH.
Deep-layer wind profiles will remain favorable with 45-55-kt
southwesterly to west-southwesterly effective-shear magnitudes, and
both mean-wind and deep-shear vectors aligned with a substantial
component orthogonal to the orientation of the convective belt.
Additional thunderstorms may develop in the warm-advection zone
ahead of the main MCSs and become absorbed by them. That process,
along with the potential for cold-pool-driven processes, may lead to
net acceleration of the activity and at least locally enhanced wind-
damage potential. VWP and forecast soundings also indicate 200-400
J/kg effective SRH will persist in support of isolated, briefly
tornadic misovortices near the leading edge of the main band(s).
..Edwards.. 05/03/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
LAT...LON 35269441 36399457 36559460 38039459 38649274 39309232
40299230 40199107 39499049 38639024 37429059 36879105
36079212 35269441
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