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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0326

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 03, 2018 03:02:06
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    ACUS11 KWNS 030302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030301
    INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-030430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1001 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast IA...Northern/Central IL...Far Northwest
    IN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

    Valid 030301Z - 030430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Hail remains possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63.
    Threat will likely persist past the watch expiration time of 04Z and
    another watch may be needed to cover the persisting hail threat.

    DISCUSSION...Strong, occasionally severe, thunderstorms continue
    along and just north of a weak front extending from near MKE
    southwestward across northern IL, southeast IA, and north-central MO
    to MKC. This front has been slowly sagging southward, augmented by
    cool thunderstorm outflow. Storms in this area have generally been multicellular but a few line segments have been noted.

    Expectation is for thunderstorm activity to continue for at least
    the next several hours as the low-level jet continues to advect high
    theta-e air across the frontal zone. Resulting warm-air advection
    will help lift parcels to their LFC, supporting thunderstorm
    persistence. 0-6 km bulk shear is currently around 40-45 kt (based
    on the DVN and LOT VADs) and may increase slightly during the next
    few hours. As such, some of the more persistent updrafts may become
    organized enough to support hail.

    Current Severe Thunderstorm Watch across the region expires at 04Z
    and, given that the threat is expected to persist for the next
    several hours, another watch may be needed across portions of the
    area.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/03/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41169216 41719149 42068946 42098858 41988787 41698742
    41468713 41098709 40908737 40768807 40578958 40449119
    40569191 41169216



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 13, 2019 21:35:52
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132135
    MSZ000-LAZ000-132230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0435 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Louisiana and southwest
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...

    Valid 132135Z - 132230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will be maximized across eastern
    Louisiana and portions of southwest Mississippi along the I-20
    corridor over the next 1 to 2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...21Z surface analysis shows a warm front along the I-20
    corridor from Vicksburg to Jackson, MS. Along and south of this
    boundary is where the tornado threat will be maximized over the next
    1 to 2 hours. Very strong (30 to 35 knot) sustained southeasterly
    surface winds are present across most surface observing stations
    south of this warm front. The DGX VWP shows these winds veering and strengthening to around 50 knots around 1.5 to 2 km above the
    surface which yields 0-1 SRH around 250 to 300 m2/s2. A
    line-embedded supercell currently moving into Mississippi in
    southwest Warren county has taken advantage of this streamwise
    vorticity rich environment with a consistent 50 to 60 knot Vrot over
    the last 15 to 20 minutes from the KDGX WSR-88D. This storm, and any
    additional strong updrafts which can develop in this area within the
    next 1 to 2 hours have the potential to produce significant
    tornadoes given the low level thermodynamic and kinematic
    environment.

    ..Bentley.. 04/13/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31879277 32259215 32729121 32859059 32889016 32548984
    32299011 32069064 31829120 31619209 31549245 31639280
    31879277



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