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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1481

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 20, 2018 04:26:43
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200426
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200426
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-200600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1481
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1126 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

    Areas affected...northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas and western
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 200426Z - 200600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will pose a risk for isolated large hail through
    about 06Z over the central High Plains region. Due to the expected
    limited duration of the threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Late this evening a slow-moving cold front extends from
    eastern CO into central NE. Forcing for ascent associated with a
    strengthening low-level jet interacting with the sharpening
    baroclinic zone is fostering the development of storms from
    northeast CO through western NE. These storms are within an
    environment characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, 7.5 C/km 700-500
    mb lapse rates and 45-50 kt effective bulk shear supportive of some
    supercell structures. However, updrafts are elevated above a stable
    layer north of the front which should limit primary threat to large
    hail, though a few strong downdrafts could also reach the surface.
    Activity will continue developing northeast this evening, but
    tendency may be for storms to begin to congeal into clusters with
    time, which should eventually mitigate the overall hail threat.

    ..Dial.. 09/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 41500075 40630094 39260237 39320292 41350226 42010132
    41500075



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