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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1480

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 22:31:39
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192231
    NEZ000-200030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1480
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southwestern/central/northeastern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 192231Z - 200030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will likely initiate along a slow moving front
    within the next hour or two. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will
    be the primary threats. A WW is possible.

    DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus, on visible satellite
    imagery, near the slow moving front in southwest Nebraska has
    persisted over the past hour. Given the long residence time of
    parcels within the zone of ascent as compared to the warm front
    farther east, this appears to be the most likely area for initial
    storm development. SPC objective analysis shows mid-level lapse
    rates of 7.5-8 C/km and 50-70 kts of effective deep layer shear.
    Given this environment, a few instances of large hail are possible.
    Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest
    cells. While enhanced SRH near the warm front is supportive of
    low-level rotation, storms that form are expected to quickly move
    north of the boundary which should limit the overall tornado threat.
    A WW is possible.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 09/19/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 41110130 41720060 42349869 42629698 41769634 41229835
    40550046 40260106 40380146 40790168 41110130



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