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ACUS11 KWNS 182212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182211
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Areas affected...Far southeast NEB and southwest IA/northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182211Z - 182315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A semi-focused short-term severe risk should continue
southeastward from southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa and
northern Missouri over the next hour or two. Isolated large hail
will remain a possibility and some stronger wind gusts cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Multiple elevated semi-discrete supercells have
produced large hail across far southeast Nebraska over the past
hour. These storms continue to occur to the north of a
southward-shifting convectively reinforced boundary where moderate
elevated buoyancy resides in conjunction with relatively long
hodographs owing to 40+ kt westerly winds above 4km AGL as per
latest Omaha WSR-88D VWP data. The longevity of these
severe-producing storms is not certain, however a tendency for clustering/upscale growth should tend to curb the larger hail
magnitudes as compared to earlier. The elevated nature of the storms
will also tend to preclude severe-caliber wind gusts, although some
strong wind gusts could occur with the southern end of the storms in
closer proximity to the west/east-oriented surface boundary.
Although a general weakening trend should occur through sunset, at
least some severe risk may continue for the next hour or two across
southwest Iowa and far northern Missouri.

..Guyer.. 09/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 40969659 41299579 40669377 40149354 40459560 40969659



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