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ACUS11 KWNS 182007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182006
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-182130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the mid Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182006Z - 182130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain possible this afternoon,
but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with a weak impulse
(noted near the NE/SD border) is supporting renewed convective
development over eastern Nebraska, atop outflow-cooled air from
previous storms. Recent KOAX VWP data sampled around 40-45 kt of 500
mb flow, which is providing sufficient effective shear for a few
more organized updrafts. Combined with steep 700-500mb lapse rates,
this deep-layer flow field may encourage isolated large hail through
late afternoon. However, these are expected to remain sparse enough
to preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Hart.. 09/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON 40979793 41339788 41619749 41869623 41869535 41679410
41219330 40539371 40289469 40759663 40979793



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