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ACUS11 KWNS 030022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030021
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern IA...northern IL...and far northwest
IN.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63...

Valid 030021Z - 030145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63
continues.

SUMMARY...Current storms are at peak intensity. Loss of daytime
heating will lead to reduced surface-based instability through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...A few of the stronger storms in northern Illinois have
been efficient hail producers with greater than 2 inch hail reported
with the strongest cell near Rockford. Effective shear around 45
knots in northern Illinois has been sufficient for sustained,
rotating updrafts with these stronger cells. Surface-based
instability has begun to wane with the loss of daytime heating,
which will cause these storms to weaken over the next hour or two.

Expect convection to continue across the area into the overnight
hours as storms continue to develop along the front and slowly shift southeastward. There will continue to be a threat for some large
hail from these storms even after dark, with MUCAPE around 1500-2000
J/kg and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, especially in
western portions of the watch.

The current ongoing MCS along the MO/KS border may pose a wind
threat to the current watch area as it continues to grow upscale.
Given moderate instability and 50 to 60 knots of effective shear,
expect this MCS to remain organized to at least eastern MO/western
IL, but the stabilizing effect of additional convective development
ahead of this line may disrupt its eastward progression as indicated
by the 21Z HRRR. This will continue to be monitored for any
additional watches/extensions later this evening.

..Bentley/Leitman.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42089211 42578762 41358688 40808758 40319209 42089211



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ACUS11 KWNS 131923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131923
NCZ000-SCZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Portions of North Carolina and northern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131923Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible through the
rest of the afternoon. No WW is anticipated, but trends in
convective evolution will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A weak perturbation approaching the western Carolinas
has helped to initiate several thunderstorms along a stationary
boundary from near GSP into northeastern North Carolina. Rich
boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper-60s to low 70s in
many locations) has allowed instability to reach near 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Objective mesoanalysis shows effective deep layer shear at
30-50 kts across the discussion area. With mid-level lapse rates
around 7 C/km, at least some hail risk will exist with stronger
storms. Otherwise, a few stronger wind gusts will be the main
threats. Along and near the boundary, a few areas of more backed
surface flow exist, though flow remains weak. In these areas, it is
possible that a few storms will show some ability to rotate in the
low levels, as has been noted with a thunderstorm in Burke County,
NC. However, relatively weak buoyancy and weak surface flow should
minimize the tornado threat. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored, but the overall spatial extent of the threat appears
limited enough at this time that no watch is anticipated.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35768264 36008197 35738028 36157854 36207685 35787668
34617790 34208110 34478192 34898249 35228276 35768264



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