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ACUS11 KWNS 030015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030014
OKZ000-KSZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Central/Eastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 030014Z - 030215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Wind damage and tornado threat is expected to continue
downstream of the ongoing Tornado Watches and an additional watch
will be needed across eastern OK and possibly southeast KS.

DISCUSSION...Airmass across eastern OK is characterized by
temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s. Surface winds are southeasterly at 10-20 kt with 3
km winds (from the INX VAD) southwesterly at 30-35 kt. Mid-level
winds are a bit stronger, reaching 50 kt by 6 km. Low-level flow is
expected to increase during the next several hours as the low-level
jet strengthens, lengthening the low-level hodographs and
strengthening low-level shear. Nocturnal cooling will likely result
in weak surface-based convective inhibition but steep mid-level
lapse rates will remain in place, maintaining strong instability.

Consequently, this airmass supports continued strong to severe
storms as the upstream convection moves into the area. Several
distinct areas of convection are currently upstream with the
discrete cell near END likely reaching the edge of Tornado Watch 62
by 01Z. Additionally, convection across south-central KS has
recently increased its forward speed and will likely reach the edge
of Tornado Watch 61 around 01Z. Storms farther south across
south-central OK may have a bit more time before reaching the
eastern edge of Tornado Watch 62, but an increase in forward speed
is anticipated with this activity as well.

Given the strengthening low-level wind fields and the organized
nature of the convective lines (one in south-central KS and the
other over southwest OK) suggests the severe threat will persist
downstream of Tornado Watches 61 and 62, meriting a new downstream
watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37529648 37809627 38019581 37939502 37549473 35779479
34569529 34239609 34819687 36669665 37529648



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ACUS11 KWNS 131753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131753
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-132000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into southwest/west central
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131753Z - 132000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate across
the region through the afternoon. Some of these may be accompanied
by a risk for severe hail through mid afternoon, before the
potential for tornadoes increases closer to 3-4 PM CDT, when the
issuance of a watch currently appears most likely.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development, largely supported by strengthening low-level warm advection above/to the cool side of a
northward advancing surface front, is now underway as far east as
the Monroe LA vicinity, where a 4-5 mb 2 hour surface pressure fall
maximum has spread within the last hour. In the presence of
moderately large CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear, this
activity may continue to pose a severe hail risk through mid
afternoon.

Gradually, as the front progresses northward, it appears that a
warming and moistening boundary layer (including surface dew points
increasing to near 70f) may become supportive of intensifying
boundary-layer based storm development closer to the 21-22Z time.
Models suggest that this will also coincide with enlarging low-level
hodographs beneath an 850 mb jet strengthening to 50+ kt, which is
expected to support increasing potential for tornadoes, a few of
which may become strong.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 33139141 33538979 32798943 32468946 31789007 31649080
31679147 32579188 33139141



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