• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0321

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 02, 2018 23:11:03
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022311
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022310
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-030045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0610 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

    Areas affected...Western/Central OK...Northwest TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 62...

    Valid 022310Z - 030045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for all severe hazards, including very large hail
    and tornadoes, persists across western/central OK and adjacent
    northwest TX.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous discrete supercells developed during the past
    several hours across portions of western OK and adjacent northwest
    TX. Spatial extent between these supercells has become increasingly
    small over the past hour and current trends suggest upscale growth
    into an organized MCS is probable. Cells along the far southern
    flank (over northwest TX) have already undergone a transition to a
    more linear mode, with that general trend anticipated farther north
    into west-central OK. Once that occurs, primary severe threat will
    transition to damaging wind gusts, although tornadoes embedded
    within the line are still possible. Until then, ongoing discrete
    supercells are expected to persist within an airmass characterized
    by strong instability and veered low-level wind profiles. Recent
    KTLX VAD sampled 0-1 km SRH over 200 m2/s2. These supercells are
    capable of all severe hazards, include very large hail and
    tornadoes.

    ..Mosier.. 05/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...LUB...

    LAT...LON 36159881 36889852 37019829 36879755 36229712 35279707
    34469758 33539866 33530017 34719944 36159881



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, April 13, 2019 16:52:50
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131652
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131652
    LAZ000-TXZ000-131815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0321
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1152 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

    Areas affected...Parts of east Texas into northwestern Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...

    Valid 131652Z - 131815Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, will
    continue to gradually increase through 1-3 PM CDT, while potentially
    damaging winds may also increase along an eastward advancing gust
    front.

    DISCUSSION...16Z surface observations indicate strongest 2 hourly
    surface falls (4-5 mb) focused in an area near/southeast of Tyler TX
    into the Shreveport and Fort Polk LA vicinities. This is also
    roughly along/west of the southerly 850 mb jet axis, which is
    forecast to strengthen to 40-50+ kt through 18-20Z. Associated
    enlargement of low-level hodographs, coupled with boundary layer
    warming and moistening associated with the northward advancement of
    the surface warm front, may result in increasing tornadic potential
    in evolving discrete supercell storms across this region through mid
    afternoon.

    At the same time, an upscale growing and organizing mesoscale
    convective system appears to be accelerating eastward, across and
    east of the Interstate 35 corridor, and may approach parts of the
    Ark-La-Tex region by 20Z, with a gust front accompanied by potential
    to produce damaging winds.

    ..Kerr.. 04/13/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31969571 32059516 32349440 32379357 31879276 31439282
    31049307 30909379 30859437 30619507 30559580 30499648
    31239643 31779649 31969571



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