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ACUS11 KWNS 172006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172005
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1470
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Northern IA...West-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172005Z - 172200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible with a weakly
organized MCS this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Wind gusts to near severe limits (48 kt at MSP) and
reports of wind damage have been noted in the last hour associated
with the decaying MCS across southeast MN. While convection has
decreased and become increasingly removed from the leading outflow,
the strong cold pool (temps in the 50s-60s F behind the outflow
compared to near 90 F ahead of the boundary) may continue to support
strong wind gusts, and there is some potential for convection to
redevelop along and ahead of the outflow, which would maintain some
damaging wind risk downstream given MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Given
the lack of organization associated with the system and generally
unfavorable wind profiles, watch issuance is not expected.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43189419 43789319 44809244 45039192 44629112 43739123
43009213 42949317 42999400 43189419



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