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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1469

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, September 17, 2018 19:26:00
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 171925
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171925
    MDZ000-VAZ000-172130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1469
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

    Areas affected...Central/Southeast VA...Southern/Central MD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 171925Z - 172130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The brief tornado threat will spread northeastward with
    time this afternoon into areas near and southeast of DC. Tornado
    watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 19Z, the remnant surface circulation associated with
    TD Florence was located near the OH/WV border, with a pronounced
    midlevel dry slot noted on WV imagery to the southeast of the
    center. A differential heating zone/effective warm front is noted
    from the eastern WV Panhandle southeast into portions of central VA
    and southern MD. Convection near the frontal zone has displayed
    occasional rotation, and a few brief TDSs have been noted over the
    past few hours. As the boundary shifts northward with time, MLCAPE
    of 1000-1500 J/kg, 0-1 km shear of 20-30 kt, and 0-1 km SRH of
    200-300 m2/s2 will continue to support at least transient low-level mesocyclones, with an attendant threat of brief tornadoes and
    perhaps damaging wind gusts.

    The main corridor of threat should shift northeastward this
    afternoon, into areas near and south of DC. Given the potential for
    a few discrete cells with at least a transient tornado threat, watch
    issuance is possible. A small Slight Risk will also be added in the
    forthcoming 20Z Day 1 outlook.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 09/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36617900 38167755 38877680 38507633 37587699 37077746
    36657782 36617900



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