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ACUS11 KWNS 022229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022229
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...portions of southwest MI into northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 022229Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts will be possible for a couple
more hours this evening as storms track east into southwest MI and
portions of northern IN. Threat should remain limited in space and
time and a new watch is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms continues to increase
as they head east over Lake Michigan and into northwest IN and
southwest MI. Weak instability resides over the region on the edges
of stronger midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is strong enough
to support continued discrete cells, though a relatively dry
boundary layer will lead to higher-based cells capable of downburst
winds. In fact, a few severe downburst wind gusts have been noted in
the Chicago metro area over the last hour or so. Deep-layer shear
and lapse rates become weaker with eastward extent and any severe
threat should remain limited in areal coverage. Furthermore, with
loss of daytime heating, storms should gradually weaken with time
this evening.

..Leitman/Bentley/Edwards.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 42908632 42878588 42748513 42278506 41168522 40808548
40568751 41808772 42548774 42888650 42908632



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ACUS11 KWNS 131612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131611
LAZ000-TXZ000-131645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131611Z - 131645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...An upscale growing/organizing convective system
continues to evolve across the Interstate-35 corridor of central
Texas, with additional discrete supercell development occurring
downstream, near the surface front. The front may remain a focus
for possible tornado development into early afternoon, with
potential for new storm development gradually increasing within the
warm sector, near/north of Houston.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30999647 31279537 30859391 30499355 29909405 29819548
30269662 30999647



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