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ACUS11 KWNS 171429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171428
VAZ000-NCZ000-171630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1468
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far northern North Carolina and
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171428Z - 171630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two will be possible into mid-day, but
the threat is expected to remain low enough to preclude watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...As a vorticity maximum rotates around the eastern
periphery of Florence's broader remnant circulation, enhanced
warm-air advection and related low-level confluence are maintaining
a cluster of thunderstorms near the VA/NC border. Localized, slight
backing of flow near a weak surface front/trough is yielding
adequate storm-relative helicity to locally increase the tornado
threat this morning. For example, KAKQ VWP data recently sampled
favorable 0-1km helicity (around 175 m2/s2).

This focused, marginal threat should gradually lift northward into
the afternoon, assuming a slow northward advance of increasing
surface-based buoyancy today.

..Picca/Hart.. 09/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 37107724 36567758 36497767 36457828 36447873 36647899
36887901 37957839 38127811 38077769 37637733 37107724



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