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ACUS11 KWNS 170812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170811
NCZ000-SCZ000-171015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1467
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NC...Northeast SC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 381...

Valid 170811Z - 171015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 381 continues.

SUMMARY...While a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out,
diminishing storm coverage and intensity should preclude the need
for another watch once Tornado Watch 381 expires.

DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Depression Florence is now near
the TN/VA/KY border intersection with continue northwesterly motion
anticipated during the next several hours. As a result of this
northwesterly motion, the system continues to become increasingly
displaced from the more moist and buoyant air along the Carolina
coast. Additionally, confluent surface flow which has help sustain
rain bands across portions of the Carolinas has also weakened.
Combination of these factors has resulted in gradually diminishing
thunderstorm intensity and coverage across southeast NC and
northeast SC.

Regional VAD profiles continue to show favorable veering with height
in the lowest 3 km so a tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
However, the isolated storm coverage should keep the tornado threat
low enough to preclude the issuance of another watch after the
expiration of Tornado Watch 381.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON 35187998 35577893 35337804 34847771 33897805 33647936
34248041 35187998



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