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ACUS11 KWNS 170056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170055
NCZ000-SCZ000-170300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1466
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Areas affected...Southern North Carolina...Northeastern South
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 380...

Valid 170055Z - 170300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 380 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado or two will remain possible within WW 380,
though the threat should diminish with time.

DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a few bands of modestly
rotating cells have been noted in radar imagery. Recent KTLX and
KRAX VAD wind profiles indicate 0-1 km 200-300 m2/s2 SRH, which is
higher than what is being analyzed by SPC mesoanalysis. However, the
strongest instability has remained confined near the coast and, with
the loss of insolation and lack of strong theta-e advection, has
limited the overall tornado threat somewhat. 00Z soundings from MHX,
GSO, and, to a lesser extent CHS, all indicate enhanced 850-700 mb
flow leading to enlarged hodographs. Given these favorable wind
fields, any stronger cells may acquire rotation and pose a threat
for a tornado. With time Tropical Depression Florence is forecast by
WPC to continue to the north. As the 850 mb jet weakens and veers
from south to north, the overall threat should diminish. As such, a
new WW may not be needed after the scheduled 03Z expiration of
Tornado Watch 380.

..Wendt.. 09/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33567901 33567909 33887994 33887994 33887994 34138015
34158015 34158016 34368029 34798055 34818055 34818055
35508018 35637912 35587891 35527869 35207816 34727811
34707811 34707811 34367816 34347816 34317819 34317819
34227825 33847854 33567900 33567901 33567901



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