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WTNT31 KWNH 161538
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 69
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL062018
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLASH
FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Flash flood warnings are currently in effect across a large portion
of southeastern North Carolina and portions of far northeastern
South Carolina.

Flash flood watches are in effect across much of North
Carolina...northern South Carolina and portions of Southwest
Virginia.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Florence was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 81.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the day on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern...Central and western North Carolina...far northern
South Carolina into far southwest Virginia...

Southeastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina:

Additional 3 to 6 inches of rain...with isolated maximum of 8
inches possible...with storm total accumulations of 30 to
40 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Central and Western North Carolina...far northern South Carolina and
far southwest Virginia:

Additional 5 to 10 inches of rain, with storm total accumulations of
15 to 20 inches likely. These rainfall amounts will produce flash
flooding and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

West-central Virginia:

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

For more information on rainfall totals please see the Storm Summary
available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across southeast North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina today and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Oravec

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.0N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 35.3N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 37.8N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 39.7N 80.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 40.7N 76.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 42.3N 64.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 44.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 46.1N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

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