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ACUS11 KWNS 161942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161942
NCZ000-SCZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern South Carolina coastal plain into the
southern North Carolina piedmont

Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

Valid 161942Z - 162115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

SUMMARY...A risk for convection, including isolated thunderstorms,
capable of producing tornadoes likely will persist in a corridor
across the northeastern South Carolina coastal plain, toward the
southern North Carolina piedmont, into the 5-8 pm EDT time frame. A
new tornado watch likely will be issued prior to the expiration of
Tornado Watch 379.

DISCUSSION...Florence continues to weaken, with rising minimum
surface pressures apparent as the center of circulation gradually
turns northwestward toward/into Upstate South Carolina. Strongest
associated low-level wind fields are now well inland of the coast,
generally in the easterly regime to the north of the center, from
the North Carolina piedmont into the mountains of western North
Carolina.

However, modest low-level flow (including 30-35+ kt around 850 mb)
does persist in a narrow southerly belt across the northeastern
South Carolina coastal plain toward the North Carolina piedmont.
This still appears to be contributing to sizable clockwise curved
low-level hodographs supportive of continuing tornado potential, as
evident in VWP data from Wilmington, though perhaps somewhat
weaker/less favorable near coastal areas than earlier today.

Within this regime, a combination of breaks in the overcast and
continuing moist inflow off the Atlantic (with surface dew points in
the mid/upper 70s) is allowing for a corridor of increasing boundary
layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg. Boundary layer
destabilization is currently being slowed across the southern North
Carolina piedmont by widespread convective cloud cover and rain, but
with the continued slow acceleration of Florence, it is possible
that the axis of destabilization could gradually nose into this
region by late this afternoon. Further intensification and
northward development of convection within an ongoing band within
this axis is possible through 21Z and beyond. As this occurs, the
periodic development of low-level mesocyclones accompanied by a risk
for tornadoes probably will continue into this evening.

..Kerr.. 09/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33037954 33637970 34367994 35148016 35337928 34407870
33847851 33227886 33037954



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